Archive: Rabobank report suggests gradual dairy market price recovery possible in late 2015

Published 22 December 14

This page has been archived and no longer updated. more info

The recent Rabobank dairy quarterly report predicts a gradual recovery in market prices in the second half of 2015 but emphasises this could be delayed if global production remains strong. Milk production in the first half of 2015 is expected to reduce to below levels seen in 2014 for the EU and NZ while US production is unlikely to feel the effects of falling farmgate prices until the second half of 2015. However, stocks have been accumulating through the period of high supply with demand remaining relatively weak. As well as this, Chinese buyers are expected to remain distant for H1 2015 and the Russian ban will continue to impact available markets, resulting in further pressure to wholesale markets.

In the second half of 2015, Chinese imports are expected to gradually increase which could start to provide support to the markets again. However, this is partly dependent on production remaining relatively weak with the report suggesting a weak Southern Hemisphere production peak could be particularly significant as to whether a convincing recovery can get underway.