Archive: Reduced Russian milk production not expected to prompt higher imports

Published 19 November 14

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Recent USDA reports have predicted a decline in Russian milk production for the next two years, with 2014 production down 2.1%, followed by a further 2.0% in 2015. Despite the additional pressure this will put on domestic supplies of milk and dairy products following the import ban of August 2014, import volumes of butter and cheese are not forecast to rise in 2015. It is suggested that Russian processors will take advantage of the gap left by the import ban to utilise more milk for value added products, although this will not fully compensate for the lost supplies and therefore total domestic consumption will fall.

Only part of the drop in Russia’s liquid milk supply is forecast to be met by increased imports, mostly from neighbouring trade partner Belarus.  Cheese imports are predicted to drop by 134,000 tonnes (37%) in 2014 although it is anticipated that domestic processors will increase cheese production by 20,000 tonnes by 2015, replacing some of the previous import volumes. With butter, forecasts suggest that domestic manufacturers will increase production sufficiently to replace the banned import volumes.

Russian article 19.11.14