Archive: Further downward pressure expected on grain and oilseed markets following USDA report

Published 17 September 14

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The global grain and oilseed markets moved down again last week after the latest USDA world supply and demand estimates were revealed. While expectations are for further increases to both global supply and demand, the level of demand is still not large enough to offset the record crops. Consequently, end-season stock projections were increased for wheat, maize and soyabeans and prices have declined in response. The UK feed wheat futures nearby price closed at £112.45/t on Friday, down £6.55/t since the previous week’s close and the lowest level since July 2010. 

Global wheat production was revised to 720Mt, up 3.9Mt from August and a new record, with global wheat demand estimated to increase to 710Mt (up 3Mt). The global maize production estimate was also increased by 2Mt, to a record 988Mt, boosted by a 2.6% increase in production from the US to a record level of 366Mt. The increase to the global soyabean production forecast was perhaps the most dramatic, now forecast at 311Mt for the 2014/15 season, almost 6.5Mt higher than the previous estimate made in August. 

Detailed analysis of the impact of the recent USDA supply and demand estimates is available on the HGCA website, along with analysis on what markets will be watching for next.