What is happening to GB milk production?

Published 15 January 18

AHDB estimates that cumulative production for the 2017/18 season so far (April-December) was 9,356 million litres. This is 134m litres (1.5%) more than the three-year average for the same period. 2017/18 production ran roughly in line with the three-year average for the first half of the season, and has been running above it since October.

 GB milk production Jan18

In order to monitor where GB milk production is tracking, AHDB published a tracker* in March 2017. Given the revisions to historic data, this tracker has been re-set based on the revised March 2017 position.

 GB milk production with tracker Jan18

We can see that production fell short of the tracker from May through to August. However, production has been running close to the tracker over the last few months. If production remains in line with the tracker through to the end of March 2018 then January-March production would be about 3,120 m litres. This would bring the 2017/18 total to 12,476m litres. This figure is the 2nd highest since the mid 1980’s, just 33 m litres (0.3%) behind the high recorded in 2015/16. 

* Week-on-week movements in milk production for the last five years were combined to create an average milk profile for a typical milk year. Applying this typical milk profile to milk production in the middle of March 2017, allows AHDB to create a milk profile for the coming year.