China demand fall to keep hurting NZ

Published 8 June 16

Demand from China for SMP & WMP is expected to drop in 2016, according to the USDA, which is likely to hit NZ the most. However, a significant increase in demand for fluid milk (largely UHT) is expected to soften the blow for the EU.

The USDA forecast Chinese fluid milk imports up 41% to 650k tonnes, while SMP and WMP are expected to fall 14% and 10% to 300k tonnes and 180k tonnes respectively.

Converting these figures into milk equivalents (ME) suggest the Chinese import demand for these 3 products will drop by nearly 500m litres, with NZ losing 428m litres.

 

Change between 16-15

m litres

Overall

EU

NZ

US

SMP

-510

-107

-296

-56

WMP

-170

-4

-162

-4

Milk

184

122

30

9

Gain/loss

-496

10

-428

-51

Source: USDA