AHDB milk forecast extended to spring 2019

Published 25 June 18

In March, when we published our milk production forecast for 2018/19, we committed to do quarterly updates. This is the first review, and our forecast has now been extended through to June 2019.

The months of April and May came out 0.4% below our predictions, and milk volumes are now running in line with that forecast. Our latest full year review for 2018/19 has increased the forecast slightly as a result of better market conditions and improved milk prices, potentially leading to an increase in milk yields later in the year. Despite this, total production in 2018/19 is still expected to come out 0.6% below 2017/18.

Looking further ahead, milk production in the period April to June 2019 is currently forecast at 3,290m litres, up 0.9% on the 2018 spring. The forecast assumes more favourable weather conditions than were encountered this year. However, there is also likely to be an increase due to some of the insemination decisions made in 2015 starting to reverse out.

The forecast takes into consideration the factors that we already know will affect volumes. As always, external factors such as weather will continue to have an impact on volumes, however we have attempted to factor in all known impacts to deliver a sensible estimate of where milk volumes could come out.

GB milk forecast Jun18 

 GB milk forecast table Jun18

Figures in red are forecasts. It should be noted that this forecast includes a number of projections and assumptions, based on information currently available, but still involve risks, variables and uncertainties. Consequently, no guarantee is given to the accuracy of the forecast, but it is simply put forward as our best estimate at the time of publication.

The revised forecast will be used in our daily deliveries to help monitor volumes as the year progresses.