Archive: IGD forecasts slower growth in UK grocery market

Published 7 July 14

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The UK grocery market is expected to grow by 16% between 2014 and 2019, according to an IGD five-year forecast, down from over 19% in the five years from 2009. The slower expected growth rate is linked to the grocery shopping habits that developed during the recession, which are now ingrained in consumer behaviour. The forecast expects further growth for the discounters, however online and convenience are the two other key growth areas.

The growth of total UK grocery sales at the discounters is expected to double over the next five years, boosted by more locations and a drive to improve segment quality perceptions. The hard discounters’ share of the Cheddar market has increased by three percentage points over the past two years, benefitted by the growth in private label products.  

Online is predicted to be the fastest growing channel between now and 2019, due to the improved ease of purchasing and lower delivery costs, as well as the expansion of Click and Collect services. According to Kantar Worldpanel, online sales of milk now account for 4.6% of total GB retail milk sales by both value and volume, up from 2.6% five years ago.