Increases seen in average GDT prices, market positivity seen in contract prices?

Published 19 April 17

The latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction Price Index rose 3.1%, after a number of products saw average increases.

It would seem those involved in trading see prices firming up over the coming months, looking at the Price Index movements of the individual contracts.

For the five products with the largest quantities sold (AMF, butter, Cheddar, SMP and WMP), the Price Indices have tended to increase each month*. 

GDT article 19.04.17

Source: GDT

However, this does not mean prices are definitely going to firm over the coming months. EU futures for butter are pretty mixed while SMP has largely been falling. NZ grazing conditions at the start of their milk year (in June), EU spring levels of milk and SMP intervention are likely to have the biggest impact to market movements over the coming months.

*the months correspond to delivery dates. Changes in Price Indices are weighted averages of the % change in prices between auctions. They give a more accurate reflection of price movements than using simple weighted average prices.