Milk production on the rise

Published 10 January 17

According to provisional figures from Defra, UK milk production was 1,079m litres in November, 7% below November last year. The AHDB daily deliveries survey provisionally estimates December milk production to be around 1,150ml, just 5% down on last year. This would also put production back in line with 2014/15.

The reduction in the shortfall compared with last year is entirely due to milk production rising throughout December 2016. Some may take this as a sign of farmers reacting to rising milk prices, but it is a little early to reach that conclusion. Milk production does tend to rise between November and December. Over the last 5 years (2011-2015), the average increase has been 2% (excluding the impact of the extra day). However, 2014 and 2015 were both unusual, in that milk production remained relatively stable between the two months. As a result, the more normal seasonal increase seen in 2016 has simply closed the gap on last year, but the rise in itself is not unusual.

 Milk production Nov v Dec

The AHDB daily deliveries webpage is being revamped from 13 Jan 2017 to include an estimate for the latest month based on the AHDB daily deliveries survey.

Notes:

Figures are collated by AHDB Dairy from many of the larger UK dairy companies and are then scaled to reflect 100% of deliveries using the latest Defra UK production figures. Figures are collected on a weekly basis from dairies and may include some estimates which are subject to retrospective changes.