Latest Rabobank report pushes recovery back

Published 16 June 15

The latest Rabobank Dairy Quarterly report has suggested that a recovery in wholesale prices is unlikely to happen in 2015. Globally milk production is still growing at a higher rate than demand and this imbalance has been forecast to continue into 2016, as demand from China and Russia is expected to remain weak. The first half of 2016 is expected to bring some better prospects of price recovery although the more significant increase in prices is unlikely to occur before the second half of the year.

If Rabobank’s predictions come into fruition it is unlikely UK farmgate prices will see any major signs of recovery until post-flush 2016. Adverse weather, greater than expected increase in EU post-quota production or under/overestimated China stock figures could all change these forecasts.